HADR Institute Weekly Update

Welcome to this new edition of the HADR Institute Weekly Update, covering 26th February - 3rd March 2024.

This update covers analysis on:

1️⃣ Victorian Bushfires Test Local Resilience in Australia

2️⃣ Conflict hazard exposure in Sudan, and

3️⃣ El Niño Hazard Exposure in Peru.

We also look at the benefits of multi-disciplinary intelligence to give a holistic view of the operational environment, and explore the deterministic and probabilistic aspects of risk assessment. Not quite sure what the means? Find out below!

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1. Australia | Victorian Bushfires Test Local Resilience

• Date Released: 28 Feb 24 [Correct as at: 28 Feb 24]

• Information Requirements Addressed: Natural Hazards and Exposure.

Hot and windy conditions in western Victoria on Wednesday 28th February have pushed fire danger ratings to catastrophic levels. Authorities have urged over 30,000 people located between the Ballarat and Ararat regions to evacuate their homes.

Catastrophic fire danger paired with indicators of lower underlying resilience levels of exposed communities presents likely challenges during response and recovery efforts.

2. Sudan | Conflict Hazard Exposure  

• Date Released: 04 Mar 24 [Correct as at: 28 Feb 24]

• Information Requirements Addressed: Current Conflict | Risk of Potential Conflict | Civil Unrest | Displaced People and Migration

Many indiscriminate attacks since mid-April 2023 have been targeted at densely populated areas, resulting in civilian deaths and widespread displacement.

It is very likely that the risk of human-caused hazard exposure will continue to remain very high for the foreseeable future. Heightened displacement is very likely to persist for at least the coming months.

3. Peru | El Niño Hazard Exposure  

• Date Released: 01 Mar 24 [Correct as at: 29 Feb 24]

• Information Requirements Addressed: Natural Hazard Exposure | Vulnerable Groups | Institutional Coping Capacity

Peru has undergone heavy rainfall and flooding since February 21st. These recent events have affected multiple regions, resulting in casualties and extensive infrastructure damage.

There is a likelihood that the frequency and severity of such events across various departments of Peru indicate an escalation in risks. Proactive measures are essential, particularly with a focus on vulnerable groups, to enhance resilience and mitigate exposure.

💻 Quick Lesson: Interdisciplinary approaches in the Intelligence Cycle

Effective intelligence relies on a multi-disciplined approach, where the strategic planning of the Intelligence Cycle guides the collection of vital data through collection management before bringing it together for deeper insights.

It is in this analysis phase where the magic happens: disparate pieces of intelligence, from various sources, are woven together, corroborated, and cross-referenced to paint a full picture of the operational environment.

If your organisation could benefit from developing these capabilities, or augmenting existing capabilities, contact [email protected]. We work with non-profits, government agencies and international development organisations.

To download a resource explaining these frameworks, follow the link below:

💡Quick Lesson: Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk

“Deterministic risk considers the impact of a single risk scenario, whereas probabilistic risk considers all possible scenarios, their likelihood and associated impacts.”

Probabilistic risk assessment simulates future disasters which, based on scientific evidence, are likely to occur. These risk assessments resolve the problem posed by the limits of historical data, "completing" historical records by reproducing the physics of the phenomena.

In contrast, a deterministic model treats the probability of an event as finite. The deterministic approach typically models scenarios, where the input values are known and the outcome is observed.

There is overlap in deterministic and probabilistic modelling. So, running multiple scenarios at different probabilities of occurrence can be used to generate a deterministic scenario. Typical scenarios might include:

• Worst-case  e.g. the maximum losses

• Best-case e.g. the losses that can be absorbed

• Most "likely" e.g. the losses that are most likely to occur

There are a number of problems with a deterministic approach e.g. it does not consider the full range of possible outcomes, and does not quantify the likelihood of each of these outcomes. Deterministic scenario planning can actually underestimate the potential risk. In order to address this short-fall, it is best to adopt a probabilistic approach.

If your organisation is looking at integrating a more deliberate, risk informed approach for humanitarian preparedness, response or disaster management, get in touch with: www.hadri.org.

Read more about probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment at the link below:

👩‍🚒 How HADRI can help you/your organization

The HADR Institute has a broad number of contributors, with over 40 active members of diverse backgrounds and expertise. We can provide a range of services and analyses to on-the-ground organizations, NGOs and governments.

Access and read our capability statement here.

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